I Predict That Rise Of Skywalker Will Do Less Than Solo At The Box Office

An anonymous SJW recently posted the following comment on this blog:

The only irony I see is that you block people because you can’t accept being wrong when we tell you are, hence why you try to twist certain realities to for yours.

So, let me give you one to drill in your thick, tiny-brained skull.

The Rise Of Skywalker will make $1 billion. It will be considered a success, because big $200-$300M blockbusters are considered successful if they make a billion. And, when it does, you’ll soon see you and your cult’s attempts to kill it were irrelevant. You know why? Because you’re in a minority of white men who are cruel, are virgins with hard dicks that masturbate and jerk off to being negative on their stupid phones and also need to get jobs and make money instead of sticking as poor people, like YOU.

Most of my readers have read many comments like this before.  Many of my readers will remember reading comments like this before the theatrical release of Solo.

But I’m going to predict that Episode IX will do worse at the box office than Solo.  Here’s why.

The Last Jedi Box Office Slide

SJWs like to tout The Last Jedi’s $1.3 Billion earnings as a great success.  But to do that you have to willfully ignore other facts. First, The Last Jedi saw a 77% drop off from TFA in its first Friday to Friday comparison.  By the second week, TLJ was running 100 Million behind TFA.  In the third week, it dropped to 3rd place, behind the 4th sequel in a low budget horror franchise.  In fact as of this writing, thanks to The Last Jedi, the Star Wars franchise now holds the record for the biggest sequel to sequel plunge in cinema history.  At one point, The Last Jedi has fell $200 Million short of analysts’ forecasts.

All of this clearly indicated that although the first weekend did phenomenally well at the box office, people were not returning for repeat viewings as is typically the tradition for Star Wars films.  This portended what was to come with Solo at the box office.

Poor Box Office Ranking

According to the-numbers.com by the 18th week, The Last Jedi dropped to 71st place in its ranking, having brought in a measly $5800. That kind of drop off is certainly a first for a Star Wars film, especially for a Star Wars film in the primary episodic saga.

According to ultimatemovierankings.com, The Last Jedi ranks far lower than the much-maligned Episode I.

Public Misbehavior of Lucasfilm Representatives

This cannot be discounted.  Any business that openly and publicly insults its customers is going to suffer financially.  It’s just common sense.  All of the boys who grew up with Star Wars 40 years ago, and who stood by the franchise through thick and thin throughout the decades, are now fathers with their own children.  Why on Earth would these fathers want to expose their children, boy or girl, to an openly misandrous franchise that excludes boys and villainizes men?  They wouldn’t.

Solo Box Office Failure

Solo was an unmitigated disaster at the box office.

Box office predictions for Solo’s opening weekend started at $170 Million, then fell to $150 Million, then $138 Million, then $120 Million, then $115 Million, then $105 Million, then $100 Million, and would ultimately earn roughly $103 Million over the four day holiday weekend.  This is when the phrase “Star Wars fatigue” was invented.

But thinking people understood what was happening here.   After seeing The Force Awakens, fans were happy and returned for more on the opening weekend of The Last Jedi.  But fans were not happy with what they saw on the opening weekend for The Last Jedi, and did not return for repeat viewings in subsequent weekends, and did not return for the next installment in the franchise.  It’s that simple.

So the question then becomes, will the few who saw Solo and liked it, return for Episode IX?

Hoodwinked By Glowing Reviews

Many in the public felt taken advantage of by glowing reviews that were clearly given from a politically-biased point of view, rather than being based on film craft alone.  I’ve compared the reviews from the same critics between The Last Jedi and Solo.  I suspect that the average moviegoer is getting wise to this tactic, and will, therefore, be ignoring the inevitable glowing reviews for Episode IX.

Falling Toy And Merchandise Sales

One of the primary canaries in the coal mine was the diminishing toy and merchandise sales, which may or may not have lead to the closing of the Toys R Us toy stores.  World Class Bullshitters was the first to identify that problem and you can watch many of their videos on the topic here, along with a collection links to relevant blog posts on the matter.

Blu-Ray And DVD Sales

The Last Jedi only sold roughly 43% of The Force Awakens. Not even half.

When it came to Blu-Rays, The Last Jedi only sold marginally more than Rogue One and Solo, and roughly 45% of The Force Awakens. Again, that’s not even half.

Canceled Shows

Star Wars: Resistance was canceled after only 1 season, due to poor performance in the ratings.

Falling Comic Book Sales

Star Wars comic book sales have been reported to be dropping according to comichron.com.

The Galaxy’s Edge Ghost Town

Numerous articles written by multiple outlets have been reporting on the barren empty nature of the Galaxy’s Edge theme parks.  There just isn’t much interest.

Lackluster Trailer

The trailer for Episode IX was awfully boring.

Lack Of Interest

Many data sets point to apathy rising in the general audience.

Rise

MLP

 

JTA4

JTA3

JTA2

JTA1

Apathy

Mandalorian Premiere on November 12th

Episode IX is being released on December 20th.  That’s a little more than a month after The Mandalorian’s release date.  As I wrote about previously, there are signs indicating that the character could be a Chuck Wendig creation, and it’s already showing signs that political lectures are on the way.  It’s only a matter of time before Pedro Pascal goes on a public Twitter rant.  If that’s the case, then The Mandalorian’s premiere being so close to the release date of Episode IX will have a compounding “get woke go broke” effect before the feature film is even released.


So from my perspective, all of these coal mine canaries are portending massive box office disaster for Episode IX.  And that’s why I predict that Episode IX will do worse at the box office than Solo.  But I’ll probably be wrong.

47 thoughts on “I Predict That Rise Of Skywalker Will Do Less Than Solo At The Box Office

  1. I don’t think Disney realizes just how toxic this SJW filth is, and how they have left a permanent and unremovable piss stain on Star Wars and Disney as a brand. I’m just so glad it’s going to be over and I won’t have to look at Disney Wars and its ugly makers any more.

    And I was a huge lifelong Star Wars fan, ten years ago I would have been bursting at the seams about Favreau doing Star Wars. But today I hate Disney and its shills so much that there’s absolutely no way I can bring myself to pay for it or promote it in any way, even if it turned out to be as good as the OT (which it won’t).

    I never thought I would feel sick at the sight of the Star Wars and Marvel brands, but I did indeed see them on a poster recently, under the Disney logo, and I felt sick. Just from the sight of it.

    So good luck to them with their new SJW crowd, because there is absolutely zero chance of ever ‘bringing the fan base back together’ as they often like to say. That is never going to happen I’m afraid. This is a divorce and its permanent.

    And I’m not going to be paying alimony. Disney needs to make ALL its money from the SJWs now.

    I’m too busy masturbating my hard dick of negativity into my dumb phone because I need to get a job, or whatever that moronic SJW said.

    Liked by 4 people

    • Not only am I not buying anymore new Disney or Star Wars merchandise, I will not be wearing any of my many classic Star Wars shirts until well into 2020, because I do not want to promote nor publicize Plan IX in any way (except maybe by wearing my EVS Plan IX shirt, I don’t think that will help it at all).

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  2. “And that’s why I predict that Episode IX will do worse at the box office than Solo. But I’ll probably be wrong.”

    I kinda think it will do the same as Captain Manvers, but only because, as our friend says, $1b is the mark of success. I have zero trust in these aggregation sites now. There is no mechanism which actually forces them to be honest, and we’ve already seen Disney putting their thumb on the scale for a few things.

    I will still hold TRS to the standard of matching TFA. If you believe that TLJ was a fan fiction by a hack, then JJ should be able to make the same numbers with this movie as with TFA. Everyone will go and see yet another JJ movie.

    If it matches Solo numbers, I will celebrate, but I think it will surpass. This is still a much more important flick than Solo, but rather I believe that Disney is desparate to avoid the wrath of the shareholders and, if this appears to flop, there is no more hiding what is really happening. Comparing this to TFA is comparing oranges to oranges. There are no excuses. (“it didn’t do as well as TFA because we didn’t have any porgs in it”)

    So, I’m doing a quick search (boxoffice mojo)
    Avengers: Infinity War $678m dom-gros .. $1.37b for-gros .. $2.04b ww-gros (33.1/66.9)%
    Avengers: Endgame $858m dom-gros .. $1.93b for-gros .. $2.79b ww-gros ($30.7/69.3)%
    Captain Manvers: $426 dom-gros .. $701m for-gros .. $1.13b ww-gros (37.8/62.2)%

    ST: TFA $936m dom-gros .. $1.13b for-gros .. $2.07b ww-gros (45.3/54.7)%
    ST: TLJ $620m dom-gros .. $712m for-gros .. $1.33b ww-gros (46.5/53.5)%
    Solo: $213m dom-gros .. $179m for-gros .. $392m ww-gros (54.4/45.6)%

    Endgame beats out IW…substantially. (over 1/3 of IW)
    To hold TRS to that standard vs. TFA, (both being JJ movies and TRS being the ‘wrap-up’ of a ‘story’ 🤣)
    we are looking at $2.8b. So, $1b isn’t a very interesting milestone and making $500m off of people who are morbidly curious and then back-filling with $500m in ‘advertizing budget’ is probably easy to manage for a $100b+ company.

    As an added bonus, Captain Manvers alerted us to sold-out-empty-seats phenominon. If this is actually a real thing, people are going to be looking for it and documenting it a whole lot more.

    May the best fans win!

    Liked by 3 people

    • Well, I don’t know about you. But now? I’m all excited to see this film! Oh my gorsh! Think of the new perspective JJ’s bringing to the table. Literally!
      The Rice of Skywalker.
      We’re finally being invited into the world of the eating habits of the Jedi. No WONDER Luke Skywalker had to diet in that Rian Johnson movie. Kylo should have said “Chill the leftovers; Stir fry them if you have to.”

      Like

  3. Except that INFINITY WAR didn’t polarize the fanbase or paint the story into a corner. TLJ’s impact on the franchise and nerd culture was immediate and catastrophic. TROS will only draw in the curious and the normies who don’t care about story and just enjoy spectacle.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Infinity War did paint the story into a corner…they just solved it with time travel in the next one, if they hadn’t pulled that out the hat a lot of Marvels line up would now be dead.

      It just did it in a way that didn’t completely suck…so the audience was willing to forgive the corny time travel get out.

      TROS is going to be an absolute train-wreck…I will enjoy laughing at it when I download it, I just don’t care anymore.

      Liked by 1 person

      • There’s a difference between a cliffhanger ending (with a plan for the next installment), and doing whatever/leaving a mess for the next guy to clean up. THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACK had a cliffhanger ending, and was a well-made and well-received film. Thus, RETURN OF THE JEDI ended up outgrossing it, because it was the resolution to the cliffhanger AND the final film in the series. And so it was with ENDGAME. TLJ just broke all the toys, and left no one anxious to see the concluding film in the trilogy. There is absolutely no way Abrams can fix this. None.

        Liked by 1 person

    • My point I think was more or less about ‘point of view’. *I* believe what you say is correct, but the media, the critics and the people on RT giving DSW a positive mark do not. Or maybe more accurately ‘say you are wrong’ as what they believe is probably different in many cases.

      But from the start, the story was DSW is excellent, and people who can’t see that are mouth-breathing nit-pickers, yada-yada-yada and are very few in numbers.

      For this claim to stand, there has to be an explanation as to why TLJ only performed to 66% of TFA. They have to blame RJ and his “style” and change to JJ to get out from under that. If that is their plan, then TRS has no reason to not land in the ballpark of TFA. (It has to be this or they have to admit that we, the FM, are right and we are big.) We know that’s not going to happen. Disney knows that’s not going to happen and again, they’re going to have to answer to the shareholders as to what went wrong. (like the shareholders don’t already know anyway)

      I bet that Disney is going to come up with something which passes the blame. Either a big leak, a scandal or a big failure in advertising. Something to rationalize the lack of interest which isn’t just “Kathy and Bob burned it to the ground” and keep the shareholder pitchforks away. Or they could double down again, push the revenue numbers closer to TFA, and do even more creative accounting.

      I might as well, drop this here too. Right here, you guys are discussing repairing the story and whether JJ can do that. I’m sure JJ believes this is his job and what he’s accomplishing. The thing they do not seem to be putting any effort into is repairing reputation. Oh well. “It’s fine…Everything’s fine”

      Liked by 1 person

  4. At first I thought you were quoting Pablo. It just sounds like something Pablo would say. haha Hey I have an idea… How about NBC/Universal offer Disney 8 Billion dollars and the rights of the Hulk back in exchange for Star Wars? I really don’t think George Lucas would mind.

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  5. SOLO was mediocre but enjoyed it and liked it – the ending was better than the entire film though once Maul showed up. TLJ’s first half was pretty awful but I felt the 2nd half was better than the entire TFA film. All in all I liked the anthology films more than the ST.

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    • Same. Rogue One is an example of what Star Wars should be: new characters, new worlds that look unlike other planets we’ve seen already (Scarif, Eadu and The Rings Of Kafrene being examples of that).

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        • I agree. ROGUE ONE was bland, boring, and pointless. The final half-hour doesn’t match up with the specific details of the original film, and the Vader scene—while well-executed, and the only scene in the movie which raised my heart-rate—is pure fanwankery. And then there’s the creepy, CG-graverobbing of Peter Cushing and Carrie Fisher.

          Liked by 1 person

          • Exactly. And let’s not forget that this movie changes what the prequel established about the construction of the first Death Star, and if watched as a bridge between Episode III and IV, it completely, absolutely ruins the dramatic and perfect introduction scene of the AT-ATs.

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            • A friend of mine, to whom I introduced STAR WARS (the six Lucas films in release order) in 2014, introduced his wife to STAR WARS in story order. As in, I-III, ROGUE ONE, IV-VIII. I was horrified, to say the least. Personally, I think the only proper viewing order is IV-VI (original), I-III, and then IV-VI (Special Edition), so that you get the OT as originally presented, then the prequels as originally presented, and then the overall six-film arc as Lucas envisioned it at the end of his tenure. The idea of STAR WARS (1977) not being one’s first-ever exposure to the franchise is unthinkable, to me.

              Liked by 1 person

        • I’m sorry, but, everything you just said was wrong. It did not dump on canon, more like expanded it. And, your expression of feminism is just something negatively portrayed out of display of fear, anger, hatred, jealousy and sexism.

          It is my duty to expose it and cleanse my planet of it.

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        • Other than Vader directly witnessing Leia’s ship depart, I’m not sure how it took a dump on canon, any more than Qui-Gon being Obi-Wan’s master instead of Yoda, or for that matter, Leia remembering Padme despite barely even being an hour old before she died (to say little about how Luke apparently having little enough recollection of her that he specifically had to ask Leia about what her “real mother” was like despite being her twin brother), not to mention the infamous “Greedo Shot First” edit (and bear in mind, all those dumps on canon Lucas had been responsible for).

          As far as feminist garbage, I can tell you one thing, it’s definitely less feminist garbage than The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi. At least Jyn Erso doesn’t ace everything or bashes anyone for even daring to help her out of a situation due to chivalry.

          Could it have been much better? You bet! But compared to most of Disney’s clunkers with the franchise, it’s definitely a very good entry.

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          • Well, okay, Vader directly witnessing Leia’s ship depart as well as the plans being delivered to the Tantive IV instead of being beamed directly to the ship. Even still, I can assure you that Lucas made similar canon dumps anyway, some being even worse.

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              • Didn’t even mention the Vietcong, not in this specific comment thread anyway. But yeah, that’s another issue I have with George Lucas (though that’s peanuts compared to the blatant leftism Disney’s pushing in the Sequel Trilogy).

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                  • Not everything I write. I wasn’t even intending to mention the Vietcong at all regarding this comment thread. And make no mistake, if I wanted to mention the Vietcong, I would have made sure to name drop them. The only thing I mentioned was Lucas also being guilty of canon dumps. Not to mention there are other posts where I don’t even MENTION Lucas at all (let alone who he supports) and specifically refer to JJ Abrams’ trash handling, as well as Bob Iger.

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      • Rogue One is completely hollow and forgettable. While it’s the least insulting of the Disney movies, I don’t think we should set such a low bar for post-Lucas content.

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  6. I think IX will fall between 350 to 400 million domestic and do about 450 overseas for an 750 to 800 million WW finish.
    Of course, Disney will find a way to inflate the BO like they did for Craptain Manvers, they simply can’t let people notice their garbage tier propaganda BS fails.

    Liked by 2 people

  7. Itchy.
    Why did you not include the games in this piece.
    G&G Jeremy may like EA’s BF2 but after 4-6 years (I think) there is noting ONLY 2 GAMES. and both of it not good. It a mess out there in the gaming world. why
    I can on and on but Thank to EA’s BF2 we have the gov interested what the fuss about
    Keyword. Gambling

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Why would I pay money to see my beloved Star Wars beeing further destroyed, again? TLJ by Rian “Shitter” Johnson is a shit stain on Star Wars. You only can get rid of it if you burn it. And we know that isn’t going to happen.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. “that’s why I predict that Episode IX will do worse at the box office than Solo. But I’ll probably be wrong.”
    You won’t be wrong Itchy. But Disney will do it’s best to make it APPEAR that you are wrong. Hopefully, being under scrutiny by the SEC will make it difficult or impossible for Disney to get away with it this time, like they did for Captain Marv.

    Like

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